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22 January 2015

2015 Elections: a change in the Latin American economic and political cycle

2015 might seem a quiet year as regards Latin American elections. However, this is not the case. The truth is that, even though only two presidential elections will be held this year (Guatemala and Argentina), compared to the seven elections that took place last year, both and the legislative and local elections that will be organized in El Salvador, Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia will greatly determine the potential governability in these countries.

What are the expected results for these elections? Which elements of continuity and change might emerge compared to what happened in the previous year?

This report analyses the electoral prospects for Latin America in the coming year, with the elections being held amid an economic slowdown cycle, marked by volatility, depreciation of local currencies against the dollar and the drop in prices of commodities. In addition, the current ruling parties will face these elections in a clearly weakened state.

In short, it seems as if 2015 will be, only in theory, a less intense year from an electoral point of view than 2014. The common characteristic that will probably define the results of these elections will be change, rather than continuity.

Jorge Cachinero, Corporate Director of Reputation and Innovation of LLORENTE & CUENCA

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